2026 Crisis Simulation Manual: Operation "Thor’s Shadow"
Scenario: Transition from "Joint Sword 2026-C" Exercise to Kinetic Occupation. Objective: Capture the "Heinessen" (Taipei) political center and establish a "SAR Regime" before the "Alliance" (US/Japan) can effectively intervene.
Phase 1: The Normalization of Entropy (T-Minus 30 Days)
Systemic Goal: Lower the signal-to-noise ratio.
- Action: The Empire (PLA) launches its 5th large-scale drill of 2026. The frequency has reached a point where the Taiwanese public and financial markets no longer react to "standard" encirclements.
- The "Fatigue Loop": Taiwan's aging fleet (Cheng Kung-class frigates) is kept at sea for 20+ days to track 052D and 055 destroyers, leading to critical mechanical failure and crew exhaustion.
- The Psychological Signal: Infiltrated social media channels (TikTok/Line groups) amplify the "Cost of Defense" narrative, highlighting the "Protection Money" (US arms sales) while questioning why F-16s are still undelivered.
Phase 2: The "Identity Break" & Digital Blackout (H-Hour)
Systemic Goal: Sever the OODA Loop.
- Cyber Strike: Instead of a massive missile barrage (which triggers immediate US intervention), the Empire initiates a surgical "Identity Break." Using the "Agentic AI" we discussed in the Digital Ragnarök series, the Empire "bricks" Taiwan's military command communications.
- The Fog of Code: Orders from Taipei to the Hualien airbase appear to be "Counter-manded" by legitimate-looking AI-generated deepfake voices of high-ranking generals.
- Sub-sea Severance: The "Research Vessels" loitering near the Bashi Channel "accidentally" sever the primary fiber cables, plunging the island into a digital blackout.
Phase 3: The Lightning Pincer (H+6 Hours)
Systemic Goal: Achieve A2/AD via the "Miyako-Bashi" Blockade.
- The 055 Screen: Eight Type 055 "Imperial Flagships" take position in the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel. They don't fire on US bases; they simply radiate a massive electronic "Strategy of Denial."
- Carrier Deployment: The Fujian (003) and its battle group move to the Philippine Sea. Its presence solves the Blitzkrieg Equation: it forces the US Seventh Fleet to "Pause for Assessment" rather than "Charge into the Meat Grinder."
- The Special Ops Strike: Under the cover of the "drill," civilian-looking RO-RO (Roll-on/Roll-off) ships docked at Taipei Port reveal rapid-deployment units. They move directly for the Presidential Office and the military's underground command center (Heng Shan).
Phase 4: The Political Fait Accompli (H+48 Hours)
Systemic Goal: Institutionalizing the "SAR Regime."
- The 60% Factor: As the internet flickers back on, it is only to show a "Peace Preservation Committee" composed of local political figures claiming to have reached a "Ceasefire Agreement" to save Taiwan from "pointless destruction."
- The Neutralization of Resistance:
- The International Buffer: The Empire announces that the Taiwan Strait remains an "Open International Corridor" for non-military ships. This creates a systemic dilemma for the US and Japan: Do you start World War III to "liberate" a population that has (officially) signed a peace treaty?
Systemic Evaluation: Why this succeeds in 2026
- Avoidance of "Chosin Reservoir" Attrition: By targeting the political center and social willpower rather than engaging in a massive beach landing, the Empire preserves its own power and minimizes the "World War III" trigger.
- The Silicon Hostage: By keeping the 2nm fabs in Hsinchu intact but under "New Management," the Empire forces the Alliance (US) to negotiate. The "Silicon Shield" is effectively flipped—it now protects the occupier.
- The "Strategy of Denial" in Reverse: The US is faced with a "Strategy of Denial" from the Empire. To intervene, the US would have to be the aggressor against a "legitimate" local SAR government.
The Hong Kong Expert's Final Note
This simulation assumes that the Empire has learned the "Putin-Kyiv Lesson." They won't send a disorganized convoy; they will send a Digital-Kinetic Pincer. In 2026, the greatest threat to Iserlohn isn't a missile—it's the Mathematical Realization that the fortress has already been sold from the inside.