The 40x Engineer: Why the "Smartest" Are About to Leave Everyone Else Behind
TL;DR: The era of the "10x Engineer" is over. We are entering the era of the "40x Orchestrator." A recent insight from the founder of Notion reveals a terrifying truth: Leverage has shifted from Platforms (Big Tech) to Personal Systems (AI Agents). If you are simply using AI to write emails, you are riding a bicycle on the Autobahn. To actually scale yourself, you must solve two problems: Context and Judgment.
James here, CEO of Mercury Technology Solutions.
Hong Kong - January 4, 2026
I read a reflection from the founder of Notion recently that stopped me in my tracks.
He mentioned his co-founder, Simon. Simon was already a legendary "10x Engineer."
But today, Simon rarely writes code by hand. Instead, he orchestrates three or four AI agents simultaneously. While he sleeps, they code.
Simon is no longer a 10x engineer. He is a 30x or 40x engineer.
This is the widening gap. The leverage has changed hands.
1. The Shift in Leverage: From "Big Tech" to "Big Systems"
For the past 20 years, leverage was institutional.
- The Path: Join Google/Meta --> Use their massive infrastructure --> Get High Output/High Income.
- The Reality: Your output was capped by your ability to navigate their system.
Today, leverage is individual.
It is not about how hard you work. It is about whether you have built a system behind you to multiply your output.
The divide is no longer "Smart vs. Dumb." It is "Those who use AI as a Tool" vs. "Those who use AI as a Workforce."
2. The Bicycle on the Autobahn
Notion’s founder uses a brilliant metaphor:
Steve Jobs called the computer a "Bicycle for the mind." Later, we built the "Information Superhighway" (The Internet).
But until 2024, we were still pedaling bicycles on that highway. We were manually processing information on a network built for speed.
AI Agents are the Automobiles.
If you are still manually typing every response, you are pedaling a bike in the slow lane of a German Autobahn while Simon zooms past in a Ferrari.
3. How to Get the Leverage (The System Requirements)
So, how do you become a 40x Orchestrator? You must solve two Systems Engineering problems.
Problem A: Context Engineering (The Data Layer)
Why did programmers get this leverage first? Because their environment is structured: IDEs, Git repositories, Terminal logs. The AI has perfect context.
Knowledge workers (you and me) are messy. Our context is scattered across Slack, Email, Zoom, and our brains.
The Fix: You must aggressively document.
- Start writing "Stream of Consciousness" logs.
- Document your SOPs.
- Write for the AI, not for humans. You are creating the "Context Window" for your future digital twin. If it’s not written down, the agent cannot learn it.
Problem B: Judgment & Verification (The Control Layer)
Code is easy to verify: it compiles, or it errors.
Strategy is hard. Is this memo "good"? Is this project plan "sound"?
AI cannot judge quality; it can only generate probability.
This is where your Taste becomes your moat.
Your value is no longer doing the work. Your value is judging the work. If you cannot tell the difference between "Great" and "Average," you cannot manage an AI workforce.
4. Stop Being a "Human-in-the-Loop" Inspector
There is a trap here.
The article notes: "Having a human-in-the-loop is like having a human inspect every bolt on an assembly line."
If you generate an email with AI and then spend 10 minutes proofreading every word, you are a Human Bottleneck. You are a manual quality inspector in a robotic factory.
The Managerial Shift:
- Define the Standard: Teach the AI clearly what "Good" looks like (Few-Shot Prompting).
- Sample the Output: Spot check 1 in 10, not 10 in 10.
- Iterate the System: If the output is bad, don't fix the output. Fix the Prompt or the Context.
Conclusion: The Steam Engine Test
When the steam engine was invented, early factory owners just swapped the water wheel for a steam engine but kept the factory layout the same. Productivity barely moved.
The explosion happened when they realized they could move the factory away from the river and redesign the entire workflow around the engine.
Ask yourself today:
- Are you using AI as a Water Wheel? (Just asking ChatGPT to rewrite a sentence).
- Or are you using it as a Steam Engine? (Redesigning your entire workflow because you no longer need to be near the "river" of manual labor).
The leverage has changed hands. The car is in the driveway. Stop pedaling.
Mercury Technology Solutions: Accelerate Digitality.